Is It The Hope That Kills You?

Will Monday 9th August be the day the world finally woke up to the probable/inevitable impact of climate change on our planet and the lives of everything and everyone living on it? I’ve asked myself this sort of question many times in the past, a heart filled with hope. Each time I ask, my hopes end up being dashed and the nausea in my stomach grows. But perhaps this time will be different…?

2021 has been dominated by Covid 19 and so the climate emergency has had to fight for airtime. In a year when America, Canada and Greece have been on fire in the same month Germany, Belgium and Netherlands went under water, and Madrid and Texas became snowbound, the voice of the climate sceptics may finally have been silenced. Sadly it’s taken First World stories of catastrophic weather events to bring hope for change. The rest of the world is already feeling the brunt of a changing climate and it’s clear the problem, that for so long was talked about using the future tense, is here now…and here to stay.

So where does my hope come from this time? Climate Change 2021, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report that was just published. It’s the sixth iteration of this assessment report and, perhaps for the first time, it is clear and unequivocal in its description of the reality of not only our future, but of our present too. The lack of diplomatic language is like a breath of fresh air (excuse the pun). It’s heart breaking to read but to me that is a step forward in facing reality. Here’s some of the headlines – think of this as a summary of the summary:

“It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred”

“The scale of recent changes across the climate system as a whole and the present state of many aspects of the climate system are unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years”

“Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. Evidence of observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones, and, in particular, their attribution to human influence, has strengthened since AR5. (AR5 is the previous version)”

”Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered.”

“Many changes in the climate system become larger in direct relation to increasing global warming. They include increases in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes, marine heatwaves, and heavy precipitation, agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions, and proportion of intense tropical cyclones, as well as reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and permafrost.”

“From a physical science perspective, limiting human-induced global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, reaching at least net zero CO2 emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions. Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in CH4 emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution and would improve air quality.” (CH4 is Methane)

The fact that this report has been approved by members of the UN is another source of my hope. The climate emergency could easily pull the world apart and intensify already existing divisions. The United Nations is currently our only mechanism for holding the world together in the face of what’s coming and so having 193 countries endorse this report, at least superficially, gives me hope.

You can read the whole report for yourself, but it’s enormous as you might imagine (although broken down into 12 clearly labelled chapters so at least easy to navigate). You might find it enough to tackle the Summary For Policy Makers which, at 5 sections and 41 pages is actually pretty straightforward to digest. Of course it’s stacked with mind-boggling descriptions and algorithms but I found it possible to gloss over those and still get a clear sense of the key messages.

I was speaking to a friend about the report yesterday and he said “it’s basically the same thing we have been hearing for 40 years”, followed by “there’s very little we can do about it”. It’s a mindset that’s helping him not have to worry about it. But it’s not one that satisfies me, which is why I’ve been experimenting with the question of what I can do to be a wholehearted, committed eco-citizen. Four months on and I’m still grappling away. I notice my energy and focus wax and wane like the moon. What part does hope play in my mindset and behaviour? Does it serve as rocket fuel that propels me into action? Is it a challenge to my acceptance of the inevitable? And, if so, is this challenge disabling or enabling? Does it bring painful memories of the past when my hopes were dashed and my heart broken?